The president could have been caught beating a puppy to death while wearing lingerie, and still all anyone in the industry would want to talk about is The Deal, specifically the one where they get exclusive rights to the NFL player names, team names and likenesses. So let’s take a look at it with completely uninformed speculation, complete with a crazy conspiracy theory!

Take Two called the deal a “tremendous disservice to the consumers”, and while it feels a little slimey agreeing with Take Two, I think they’re right. Competition is very, very good for sports games. There’s no question that the consumer was enriched by having both ESPN and Madden to choose from last year. And whil it’s hard to believe that EA could possibly kill their golden egg, there’s certainly no doubt that their other sports titles have ridden a sine wave of quality: NHL and Tiger Woods, for example, have not been getting the top-notch reviews they once recieved. In a game as complicated as football, where minor tweaks can vastly affect an AI’s playability, the risk is greater, and EA has to be commended for not having a misstep there the last couple of years.

But then, the more interesting question to me is whether or not it was good for the stockholder. It’s hard to say without knowing the financials, but at least one old rumor puts that figure at $250 million a year. Using that (completely rumored and unverified) figure, assuming $20 dollars return per box sold, EA would have to sell 12.5 million units more units than they sold this year, just to pay for the licensing costs, on top of their expenditures on marketing and development, before they see a dime of profit. For context, Halo’s 2.4 million units is the best 1 day sales ever – and their overall sales will probably be 20-30 times that. Holy financial dissonance, Batman! Good thing they saved a little cash by not paying overtime.

(Update: more context – according to GameDevNet, Madden has sold 42 million copies over the life of the brand. If the 1 billion price point of the license is correct and not a crack-laden rumor, Madden would need to sell 50 million units to break even. That sounds like a deal so bad that only an idiot would take it – I guess we’ll have to wait for the company financials in the spring to know what those numbers really are).

Want a crazy conspiracy theory? Here’s one: maybe this wasn’t EA’s idea. Hell, maybe they didn’t even want this. Crazy, eh? Consider this:

A source close to the negotiations said it was at a spring, 2004, off-site meeting attended by top NFL officials that the league determined it would take the league license exclusive. GameSpot was told the league put the license up for bid and that EA was among as many as five software publishers competing for it.

So imagine, the NFL decides to take the license exclusive (a poor decision, but whatever), and puts it up for bid. EA’s competitors, who have long resented EA’s market dominance and ability to do incredibly stupid things and still survive, bid up the price. I can easily see, say, a Microsoft or a Sony offering $200 million a year, because they know that EA knows that Madden is the bedrock of their company. EA is forced to outbid. Suddenly, the goose that lays the golden egg has the potential to be EA’s albatross.

Sounds crazy, but does it sound crazier than an EA officer saying “If it wasn’t for ESPN2K5, we could EASILY be selling 12 million more units!”

So now, what can the customer expect? Certainly less risk and innovation – why do more than update the player stats? More focus on teh shiney, just to claim they’re cutting edge. Probably a higher price point to recoup the licensing costs. So the customer can expect less innovation and lower quality, all for a higher price point. Yay, monopolies!

I do feel sorry for the other teams making football games. I’m sure the guys over at 989 and Take Two are freaking out right now, doing a little pre-Christmas polishing of their resumes. I’m a little more saddened by the threat to the NFL Blitz license, as they offered genuinely different gameplay. Hey, Midway, can I offer some advice? Think robots.

Other random thoughts: now would be a prime time to wean the player base off the ‘Madden’ name anyway. The guy looks like he’s one Turducken away from a massive coronary, and what value would the name have then? It’ll be interesting to see if EA takes the opportunity, or thinks that the Madden name will live on indefinitely. I mean, seriously, could you imagine playing Cosell 2k5?

On the brighter side, maybe Terrell Owens won’t blight my television with his crappy TV ads for a year or two.